tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3211746567698803313.post3445428988769320399..comments2024-02-13T12:31:49.367-05:00Comments on Blerf Blog: Silly TrainsDonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01833854698762392444noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3211746567698803313.post-6359962678176292402015-08-08T23:45:19.259-04:002015-08-08T23:45:19.259-04:00"Taxes will go up/ my property value will go ..."Taxes will go up/ my property value will go down from the noise and crowds going by." Several studies - more are needed - show that the aggregate increase in property values near a transit station >> are greater than the increase in taxes, even when that increase is focused on the area near the transit statin (as contrasted with across the whole city). For a while the chairman of the Portland MAX or Streetcar was also the chair of the local real estate association . . . John Kneiling (and others) have pointed out that transit has been used to facilitate and maximize the 'exploitation' of land (in the economic development sense, not the pillaging of it [although some may feel that way about development anyway . . . ] ). Way back in he early trolley days, many of the lines ended at a development being promoted by one or more of the trolley co. owners or their colleagues, or an amusement park owned by the trolley co., etc. <br /><br />"The forecast/ promised land (re)development/ building boom/ improvements, etc., haven't happened (yet) !" These kinds of things have a long gestation period and cycle life. Real estate development capital $ takes a while to promote, gather, obtain approvals, build, and get into operation, especially if a lot of coordination with others is needed. No one is going to even start doing that until the transit line is a certain thing, and sometimes not until it's well under construction. Three to 5 years is at the lower end, 10 is more normal, and some portions may take 20 to 40 years. Keep in mind that many of the existing buildings have economic service lives of 30 to 40 years, and no one is going to throw away the value of the remaining service life unless there's a compelling and almost certain economic benefit to doing so. Would you tear down your house if you still had a mortgage to pay on it, and if you didn't have another place to go live similarly paid for ? Of course not. So why should a commercial real estate owner be expected to behave any differently ?<br /><br />- Paul North. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10663522659913041691noreply@blogger.com